Investec Asset Finance has published a list of predictions for possible outcomes for the finance industry following tomorrow’s UK general election.
The guide looks at five scenarios after the votes close:
- A similar Conservative majority
- A reduced Conservative majority
- An increased Conservative majority
- Conservatives fall short of a majority, but gain most seats
- Labour gains largest majority
In each case the analysis looks at the implications for Brexit negotiations and the impact on the value of the pound.
For example, the Conservatives currently hold a majority in Parliament, but with a reduced Conservative majority following the election, the Investec analysis shows a weakened pound, with Prime Minister Theresa May facing greater political challenges when trying to introduce legislation, particularly relating to Brexit.
If the Conservatives do not gain a working majority, with fewer than around 318 seats, there will be a hung Parliament, but coalition options may be limited and there may be delays to Brexit talks. As a result, the pound would fall sharply initially, with its recovery depending on the stance taken by the coalition.
In the event of a Labour victory, the pound might initially fall, but could recover if a softer stance towards Brexit emerges.
There are 650 constituencies in the UK, with the major parties putting forward candidates in the vast majority of these areas. The Conservatives currently hold 330 seats and Labour 229.
In addition to the Conservatives and Labour, major parties include the Scottish National Party, the Liberal Democrats, the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party and Plaid Cymru, who could play a major role in a coalition government if the Conservatives or Labour fail to win a majority.
An election had not been due until 2020, but Prime Minister May called for a national vote in a bid to secure a clear mandate for engaging in Brexit discussions. The UK is due to leave the European Union in 2019 after Article 50 was triggered earlier this year to formally start the leaving process.
Investec, through its partnership with specialist asset finance brokers, offers a wide range of asset and loan finance to SMEs, corporate and professional practices, with solutions ranging from small to middle ticket deals up to a value of £10 million.
These include areas such as equipment finance, vehicle finance, materials handling and corporation tax or VAT loans.